Demonetisation to Derail Electoral Fortunes

Five Indian states are going to polls to elect their respective state legislature members in early 2017. The Election Commission of India is expected to announce the poll dates as soon as publishing the revised electoral rolls expected latest by January 15, 2017. The states going to polls are Uttar Pradesh (UP), Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa.

Elections in India are notorious for what is known as ‘buying of votes’ or ‘cash for votes’ practiced by some candidates and/or their political parties. The maximum limits of election expenditure for parliamentary and assembly constituencies have been prescribed by the election commission.

And it varies from state to state and it may vary from one election to the next election. For instance, the current maximum limit for small states like Goa and Manipur is Rs 8 lakh, and for a large state like UP, it is Rs 16 lakh. But, based on what was reported by news agencies during the previous elections, several candidates were spending in crores.

Where does all this money come from? Of course, it is an open secret that overspending depends on black money, which is amassed through corruption and other illegal practices.

In the past elections, liquor and cash were distributed liberally and openly to voters. All kinds of freebies, including electronic gadgets, clothing items such as saris, etc. were also distributed. These practices are also illegal. It is common sense that legally earned money cannot be spent in such ways.

One of the fallouts of demonetisation of high value Indian currency could be a substantial reduction in illegal election funding and spending. It is not that all candidates are corrupt. It is also not to claim that black money has been wiped out.

As news reports show, several people might have found ingenious ways to convert black money into white. That means cash for vote may still be at play in the coming elections, though the recent demonetisation drive might have dried up a substantial portion of unaccounted money that is usually hoarded in high value currency notes.

The Five States Going to Polls

The most populated state Uttar Pradesh will go to polls to elect 403 lawmakers for the Vidhan Sabha. The incumbent CM Akhilesh Yadav is seeking reelection of his Samajwadi Party (SP). His main rivals are the former CM Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Indian National Congress (INC).

Punjab will go to polls to elect 117 members of the state Legislative Assembly. The ruling Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-BJP alliance, led by CM Parkash Singh Badal, may face tough competition from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), INC and BSP. Aawaaz-e-Punjab, a new party formed by Navjot Singh Siddhu and others, is expected to be in the fray independently, or in alliance with other parties.

In Goa, election will be held to elect 40 members of the state Legislative Assembly. The current CM Laxmikant Parsekar of the BJP is seeking reelection. The main rivals are the Congress (INC), Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

Election will be held for 70 seats of the Vidhan Sabha in Uttarakhand. CM Harish Rawat and his party, the Congress, mainly face a tough challenge from the BJP. The Congress and BJP have ruled the state alternatively.

Election will be held in Manipur to elect 60 members of the state Legislative Assembly. The incumbent CM Okram Ibobi Singh is facing the main contenders BJP and the Trinamool Congress led by the West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee.

No Black Money in India?

Here is a shocking possibility that there may be no black money hoarded in India. At least, that is what two reports seek to show convincingly, quoting government’s own data.

The IANS Story

According to an IANS story published by the Indian Express, the government may have a rude shock to find that there is no or negligible amount of black money hoarded in India. At least, that may be the outcome the data as on 30 Dec 2016 can reveal. Here goes the story.

According to various estimates, black money was pegged at amounts ranging from Rs 3 lakh to Rs 5 lakh crore. On Nov 8, the value of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes in circulation was Rs 15.44 lakh crore. Out of this, as of Nov 28, the RBI said, Rs 8.45 lakh crore was deposited between Nov 10 and Nov 27 (banks were closed on Nov 9).

Commercial banks are required to keep a cash reserve ratio (CRR) @ 4% with the RBI. On Nov 8, CRR was about Rs 4.06 lakh crore, deposited mostly in high value notes. The cash-to-deposit ratio is 4.69%, which leaves 0.69% with the banks as cash in hand, which works out to approx Rs 70,000 crore.

The sum of CRR and cash deposited in 20 days is approx Rs 12.50 lakh crore. If you add Rs 50,000 crore from cash in hand, the total amount of high value notes not with the public works out to Rs 13 lakh crore.

At rate at which old notes are deposited or exchanged since Nov 8, Rs 2 lakh crore or more can come to the banks in till Dec 30, taking the total to above Rs 15 lakh crore, “thus throwing to the winds all calculation of the government to tackle black money”.

This report says, “Either the black money is not in high denomination notes or those who have such money may already have put it back into the banking system”.

The Wire Report, Quoting Economist Arun Kumar

Economist Arun Kumar estimates that over 95% of the old high value notes may come back to the banking system. The government had estimated that up to Rs 3 lakh crore of these notes may not come back into the system.

As of Dec 1 2016, nearly Rs 11 lakh crore of the old Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes were back in the banking system, with about a month more left to deposit the old notes. According to the report, small and medium scale businesses, which hold 40% to 50% of the demonetised notes, have found ways to push back money into the system.

He further reasons that the sudden increase of deposits in Jan Dhan accounts, the entire amount of Rs 29,000 crore is from just 3 crore accounts out of the total 25 crore Jan Dhan accounts. That means, 3 crore Jan Dhan accounts were used to launder money. Had these been genuine deposits, they would have been spread evenly across 25 crore accounts, not just 3 crore accounts.

My Take

The sudden announcement of demonetisation was an rude shock to most people. They invented ingenious ways to exchange/deposit their money.

One of the ways people found was to buy gold from jewelers who reopened shops and continued selling their stocks till they lasted on the night of Nov 8/9, charging exorbitant prices.

There are reports of people using the bank accounts of others, apart from Jan Dhan accounts as mentioned above. There were millions of bank accounts which were either dormant or rarely operated accounts many of which could be used by hoarders. Also, there were such accounts offered on hire.

Then there were some bank officials who colluded with money hoarders to exchange notes illegally, and many such officials were caught red-handed.

Temple accounts and accounts in cooperative banks were misused. Post offices, railway, petrol pumps and many other agencies were authorized to exchange/receive banned notes. Taxes and bills of utilities such as electricity and some others could be legally deposited using banned notes.

Practically every department of the central and state governments was involved in exchange/deposit of invalidated currency. All these present several millions of legal and illegal opportunities to launder money for those who really had black money. And they used the available opportunities.

Those who suffered untold hardships were the poor people and those who were not black money hoarders.

Black Money Links to Garib Kalyan

On June 26, 2016, PM Narendra Modi provided an opportunity to black money holders to disclose their incomes under the Income Declaration Scheme (IDS) and be part of a transparent system. He also announced the government will neither ask the source of the untaxed wealth nor conduct any investigation on the matter.

Now, the government is going to give another chance to convert unaccounted money by introducing the Taxation and Investment Regime for Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY).

The value of the banned Rs 500 and Rs 1000 currency notes was 86% of the total money in circulation when demonetisation was announced on November 8. It amounts to over Rs 14 lakh crores. Out of this, between November 10 and 27, only Rs 8.45 lakh crore (including exchange of Rs 33,948 crore) has come back to the banks. That leaves a whopping sum of over Rs 5.55 lakh crore still hoarded. Where will it go?

One possibility is the remaining invalid notes may find the way to the banks somehow and become transparent, white money!

In the initial phase of demonetisation shock therapy, people burned crores of rupees (a Mumbai-based hawala operator reportedly burned old notes worth Rs 500 crores). Some persons slipped in old notes into temple hundis. Many others invented their own jugaad to convert banned notes. The result was unbelievably long, serpentine queues in front of banks.

Initially, under shock, despair and confusion, a lot of people privately exchanged old notes at whatever rates they could get. Some others hired unemployed people to stand in queues and exchange notes. And some enterprising jugaad masters even started illegal exchange rackets. All these privately exchanged money had to finally end up in the banks. So, the bank queues further stretched to miles, and new dubious means opened up.

Reportedly, a few bank officials were arrested recently while illegally exchanging old notes bending RBI guidelines. The rate of commission charged by them is 30%. That is only the tip of the iceberg. If a few were caught, how many more are not caught and, perhaps, still earning huge amounts of commission?

People also invented several new monetization channels. Some of these are Jan Dhan accounts, temple’s bank accounts, tapping cooperative banks, and many more such conversion routes. These, and more, were reported by newspapers and electronic channels.

There is a possibility of most of the hoarded money finding the way into banks before the deadline. Yet another possibility, as the government banks on, is that the money can be attracted by a new scheme.

And here is what’s on offer. The new chance, the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY scheme) is a one-time scheme that will remain open only till December 30.

Those who want to use this chance have to pay tax, penalty and surcharge totaling 50% of the unaccounted money. The 50% is made up of income tax @ 30%, penalty @ 33% of tax (or 10% of declared amount) and PMGKY cess @ 10% of the declared amount.

They also will also have to deposit 25% of the disclosed sum in the PMGKY scheme fund at zero interest rate for a lock-in period of four years.

Those who miss this chance still can declare the hidden income by filing tax returns at the end of the financial year. But they will have to pay tax at a punitive rate of 60% and surcharge @ 25%, leaving only 25% with them. In some cases, an additional penalty can be levied at 10%. In case of misreporting or other irregularities, the levy of 50% can go up to 200%.

The aim is to use a part of tax dodgers’ money for the welfare of the poor, as the name of the scheme suggests.

Bankers Blues and Customers’ Woes

The Axis Bank Currency Conversion Case

Officials Axis Bank in Kashmiri Gate, Delhi, converted scraped notes worth Rs 30 crore for a hawala operator. On Friday, the Income Tax (I-T) department searched the bank premises and the residences of two senior bank officials who exchanged new Rs 500 and Rs 2,000 notes for old notes worth Rs 30 crore. The bank officials took 30% commission in gold bars from the hawala operator. Delhi Police had alerted the I-T officials after the arrest of a person with Rs 3.5 crore on November 21. According to Axis Bank, the customer who deposited the amount has been operating a current account for four years and deposits were made in his accounts. According to I-T officials, red flags were raised since a Gujarat bank official was caught receiving bribe of Rs 4 lakh in new Rs 2,000 notes on November 18. This is the first case of direct evidence of bank officials’ involvement in illegal conversion of banned notes and their collusion with hawala operators.

Four Employees of Bank of Maharashtra Suspended

Udgir is a small town in Latur district of Maharashtra. Four employees of the Bank of Maharashtra branch in Udgir exchanged invalid currency notes worth Rs 15 to 20 lakh fraudulently. They were caught and suspended. These bankers simply made unauthorized entries in the accounts of several customers. They too charged a commission of 30% from a local trader – seems to be the standard rate. Another employee of the bank promptly alerted the customer whose account was manipulated. The victim customer got frightened, rushed to the bank and made a hue and cry thereby alerting the manager and other staff. Inspector Balaji Sontakke of the crime branch of Latur said that their teams reached the bank where an audit was going on. He said depending on the outcome of the audit, a case would be registered.

The Noida Banker Helping a Friend Caught

Manoj Sharma, the branch manager of Oriental Bank of Commerce, Noida Phase 2, Uttar Pradesh, was caught by police while to helping a ‘friend’ change his black money. Sharma was caught while handing over Rs 1 lakh to the friend who had come with 25 ID proofs to cheat RBI rules on exchanging scrapped notes. The manager closed the bank on the pretext of running out of cash. Alert and aggrieved customers informed the District Magistrate N P Singh that ‘a few people were being entertained inside the branch’. Immediately Singh asked police to raid the branch. Police nabbed Sharma red-handed, while a long queue was waiting outside. Singh said that the police had shot a video of the incident as evidence and that a report had been sent to the bank’s Chairman and the finance ministry. According to the local people, black money hoarders do not have to stand in queues because they have their ‘friends’ in the bank, who help them by accepting several IDs provided either by the bank staff, or obtained from mobile phone shops. Another bank manager from Meerut reported that some persons approached him for IDs in bulk to exchange Rs 5 lakh worth of old notes, but he refused the offer.

Bank Accounts for Hire

Financial Intelligence agencies have dug up over 1,650 bank accounts which are on hire. Some people have been letting out their scarcely operated accounts for monthly rents from Rs 10,000 to Rs 15,000 to black money hoarders. One person had hired as many as 115 accounts. Agencies, which are scanning deposits made since November 8, issued show cause notices to such account holders. Agencies are trying to find out whether it is an organised racket, or run with connivance of bank staff. They are also looking into the role of bank staff in letting out accounts to convert black money. Reportedly, some bank officials were demanding 20% to 25% commission for depositing black money. On Thursday, agencies analyzed Suspicious Transaction Reports (STRs) from various states. They found 462 accounts from Bihar, 308 from West Bengal and 98 from Punjab had sudden surge of operations since Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the demonetisation drive.

Jan Dhan Account Holders Caught Unawares

Jan Dhan account holders in Ludhiana alleged that they are refused withdrawals from their bank accounts. Bank officials said the trouble is only for accounts showing ‘dubious transactions’ and they had frozen such accounts. They said they have noticed that “gullible people are depositing hoarded cash into their Jan Dhan accounts”. The officials also said the frozen accounts are of people who have not fulfilled the Know Your Customer (KYC) norms and deposited cash after November 9.

Are Bank Officials Trading Your KYC Documents?

Several customers are stumped as bank officials tell them that they have already exchanged old notes, though it may be their first visit to the bank after demonetisation was announced. They allege that bank officials may be misusing their KYC documents. Some customers suspect that some bank officials may be misusing photocopies of KYC documents submitted with their banks. A Reserve Bank of India (RBI) official said that customers are not required to submit photocopies of any such documents but they can just show bank officials any of their identification proofs. If banks have customer’s KYC details, there is no need to provide additional proof. The official advised if there is any instance of manipulation, customers can approach the banking ombudsman.

Are Jan Dhan Yojana Accounts Repository of Black Money?

News reports indicate that there is a sudden surge of deposits in Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana accounts following demonetisation of Indian currency announced on November 8. The deposits since have soared by around Rs. 27,198 crore in 14 days.

The Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY) was launched on August 28, 2014 for promoting financial inclusion by providing banking services to the disadvantaged segments of society and with the objective of ensuring at least one bank account for every household.

As on 23 November 2016, total balance in 25.68 crore Jan Dhan bank accounts was Rs. 72,834.72 crore, as against the total balance of Rs 64,252.15 crore on 9 November. Out of 25.68 crore accounts 22.94 per cent are zero balance accounts, though the number of zero balance accounts have slightly declined.

However, the government and RBI have been alerting Jan Dhan account holders not to misuse their accounts by allowing black money hoarders to deposit the scrapped bank notes into their accounts, or allowing conversion of black money.

There are also reports that the Income Tax department is looking into the sudden surge in deposits, though the final data on the deposits will be available only after December 31. However, as the RBI has asked banks to send comprehensive reports, including denomination-wise deposits, these account holders need to be cautious and not misuse their accounts.

Also, there are various reports showing that unscrupulous hoarders of currency notes, hawala operators and even some business men using the Jan Dhan accounts, paying even a commission to the account owners.

The problem with many account holders is that many of them are either poorly educated or illiterate. They simply do not understand the implications of illegal currency conversion. For a poor person, money is only money and he or she cannot differentiate between black and white money.

What makes situation serious for these account holders is that the accounts were almost dormant for quite a long time and all of a sudden, when high value currency could not be exchanged elsewhere, most of them went and deposited the money accumulated with them in their bank accounts. Within limits, they are safe, but exceptionally bulged accounts may not stand the scrutiny of the tax sleuths.

And it is quite normal for rural India to keep whatever savings they have at their own houses. Even money for the marriage of girls are saved and accumulated in cash. Several people buy and sell land and other high value items using cash. That is the kind of economy in rural India. So, these people can be easily exploited by money lenders, cash hoarders, blade companies and other illegal operators.